Scottish Premiership prediction 2026/27: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Scottish Premiership season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 12 matchdays, 21 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | CL qualifyingPos. 2 | top halfPos. 1–6 | Play-offPos. 11 | RelegationPos. 12 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 28 | 77 | 62% | 29% | >99% | – | – | 1.5 |
| 2 | Rangers | 27 | 73 | 32% | 47% | >99% | – | – | 1.9 |
| 3 | Hearts | 20 | 65 | 6% | 21% | 99% | <1% | – | 3.0 |
| 4 | Falkirk | 18 | 54 | <1% | 2% | 78% | 1% | <1% | 5.3 |
| 5 | Dundee | 17 | 52 | <1% | 1% | 65% | 2% | 1% | 6.0 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 17 | 51 | <1% | 1% | 62% | 2% | 1% | 6.2 |
| 7 | St Johnstone | 17 | 47 | – | <1% | 32% | 8% | 3% | 7.7 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 14 | 42 | – | – | 10% | 22% | 15% | 9.4 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 13 | 46 | – | <1% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 8.2 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 11 | 45 | – | <1% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 8.3 |
| 11 | Aberdeen | 11 | 41 | – | – | 10% | 22% | 16% | 9.5 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 9 | 36 | – | – | 2% | 21% | 52% | 11.0 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end (including the group stage), Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Scottish Premiership league table calculatorScottish Premiership tips
Who will win the Scottish-Premiership title in 2026/27?
Celtic goes into the remaining 21 matchdays as favourite and finishes first in 62 per cent of runs. The closest challenger is Rangers (32%), followed by Hearts (6%).
Race for the Champions League
It’s tight for place 2: Rangers reach 47%, Celtic reach 29%, Hearts reach 21%.
Who goes down?
Kilmarnock are most at risk: in 52 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Place 12). Also in danger: Aberdeen (16%), St Mirren (15%), Hibernian (6%). Aberdeen are the most likely to take the detour via the Play-off (Place 11) (22%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 125 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- After round 33 the league splits; the group stage is included in the simulation (home advantage not yet known, so calculated as neutral). Teams then stay in their half of the table.
- Play-off and play-out matches are not simulated; the column shows how often a team reaches the corresponding league position.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.