Austrian Bundesliga prediction 2026/27: Title chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Austrian Bundesliga season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 11 matchdays, 11 matchdays left until the league split.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | 1st placePos. 1 | Championship groupPos. 1–6 | Qualification groupPos. 7–12 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Wien | 33 | 51 | 73% | 100% | – | 1.3 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 27 | 47 | 24% | 100% | – | 2.0 |
| 3 | LASK | 25 | 42 | 4% | >99% | <1% | 3.0 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 19 | 37 | <1% | 98% | 2% | 4.2 |
| 5 | Hartberg | 17 | 33 | <1% | 88% | 12% | 5.2 |
| 6 | Ried | 16 | 29 | – | 64% | 36% | 6.3 |
| 7 | WSG Tirol | 12 | 26 | – | 29% | 71% | 7.5 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 11 | 21 | – | 5% | 95% | 9.4 |
| 9 | SCR Altach | 10 | 23 | – | 10% | 90% | 8.6 |
| 10 | Grazer AK | 10 | 21 | – | 4% | 96% | 9.6 |
| 11 | Austria Wien | 7 | 20 | – | 3% | 97% | 9.9 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 6 | 17 | – | <1% | >99% | 11.0 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end of the regular season, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Austrian Bundesliga league table calculatorAustrian Bundesliga tips
Who finishes first in the regular season?
Rapid Wien goes into the remaining 11 matchdays as favourite and finishes first in 73 per cent of runs. The closest challenger is RB Salzburg (24%), followed by LASK (4%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 63 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- After round 22 the league splits (Championship group, Qualification group) and points are halved. Only the regular season is simulated; the percentages refer to the table after round 22.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
More season predictions
Bundesliga · 2. Bundesliga · 3. Liga · Premier League · LaLiga · Serie A · Ligue 1 · Eredivisie · Championship · Süper Lig · Primeira Liga · Scottish Premiership · all leagues
Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.