Ligue 1 prediction 2026/27: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Ligue 1 season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 9 matchdays, 25 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | Champions LeaguePos. 1–3 | CL qualifyingPos. 4 | Europa LeaguePos. 5 | Conference LeaguePos. 6 | Relegation play-offPos. 16 | RelegationPos. 17–18 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 20 | 68 | 65% | 90% | 4% | 3% | 1% | – | – | 1.8 |
| 2 | Lille | 18 | 59 | 11% | 49% | 13% | 10% | 8% | <1% | – | 4.2 |
| 3 | Lyon | 17 | 57 | 7% | 39% | 14% | 12% | 9% | <1% | <1% | 4.9 |
| 4 | Paris | 17 | 54 | 3% | 20% | 11% | 12% | 11% | <1% | <1% | 6.4 |
| 5 | Rennes | 16 | 54 | 3% | 22% | 11% | 11% | 11% | <1% | <1% | 6.3 |
| 6 | Marseille | 15 | 55 | 5% | 28% | 12% | 12% | 11% | <1% | <1% | 5.7 |
| 7 | Monaco | 15 | 53 | 3% | 19% | 11% | 11% | 12% | <1% | <1% | 6.6 |
| 8 | Nice | 14 | 46 | <1% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 10.2 |
| 9 | Lens | 13 | 53 | 3% | 19% | 11% | 11% | 11% | <1% | <1% | 6.6 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 13 | 46 | <1% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 10.3 |
| 11 | Brest | 12 | 46 | <1% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 10.2 |
| 12 | Lorient | 12 | 45 | <1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 10.6 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 44 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 11.1 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 39 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 12% | 13% | 13.5 |
| 15 | Angers | 8 | 35 | – | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 19% | 28% | 14.8 |
| 16 | Troyes | 8 | 33 | – | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 20% | 41% | 15.6 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 7 | 34 | – | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 19% | 35% | 15.3 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 2 | 28 | – | – | – | – | <1% | 13% | 72% | 16.9 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Ligue 1 league table calculatorLigue 1 tips
Who will win the Ligue-1 title in 2026/27?
Paris Saint-Germain goes into the remaining 25 matchdays as favourite and finishes first in 65 per cent of runs. The closest challenger is Lille (11%), followed by Lyon (7%).
Race for the Champions League
It’s tight for places 1–3: Lille reach 49%, Lyon reach 39%, Marseille reach 28%.
Who goes down?
Le Havre are most at risk: in 72 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 17–18). Also in danger: Troyes (41%), Le Mans (35%), Angers (28%). Troyes are the most likely to take the detour via the Relegation play-off (Place 16) (20%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 224 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- Relegation play-offs are not simulated; the column shows the chance of finishing in the play-off place.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.