Primeira Liga prediction 2026/27: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Primeira Liga season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 10 matchdays, 24 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | Champions LeaguePos. 1–2 | CL qualifyingPos. 3 | Europa LeaguePos. 4 | Conference LeaguePos. 5 | Relegation play-offPos. 16 | RelegationPos. 17–18 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 30 | 81 | 77% | 96% | 3% | <1% | <1% | – | – | 1.3 |
| 2 | Benfica | 25 | 73 | 19% | 75% | 21% | 4% | 1% | – | – | 2.1 |
| 3 | Sporting | 24 | 67 | 4% | 26% | 54% | 14% | 4% | – | – | 3.0 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 21 | 57 | <1% | 2% | 11% | 32% | 21% | <1% | – | 5.2 |
| 5 | Arouca | 20 | 54 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 17% | 21% | <1% | <1% | 6.3 |
| 6 | Académico Viseu | 20 | 53 | <1% | <1% | 4% | 14% | 18% | <1% | <1% | 6.6 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 15 | 50 | – | <1% | 1% | 7% | 12% | <1% | <1% | 7.6 |
| 8 | Braga | 14 | 50 | – | <1% | 1% | 8% | 12% | <1% | <1% | 7.6 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 14 | 44 | – | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 10.2 |
| 10 | Famalicão | 13 | 45 | – | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 9.6 |
| 11 | Alverca | 12 | 42 | – | – | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 10.8 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 10 | 38 | – | – | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 7% | 12.5 |
| 13 | Vitória Guimarães | 9 | 39 | – | – | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 12.0 |
| 14 | Marítimo | 8 | 33 | – | – | – | – | <1% | 16% | 24% | 14.5 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 8 | 31 | – | – | – | – | <1% | 19% | 37% | 15.4 |
| 16 | Nacional | 7 | 33 | – | – | <1% | <1% | <1% | 15% | 23% | 14.5 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 7 | 32 | – | – | – | – | <1% | 17% | 32% | 15.1 |
| 18 | Estoril | 2 | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | 13% | 68% | 16.7 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Primeira Liga league table calculatorPrimeira Liga tips
Who will win the Primeira-Liga title in 2026/27?
Porto goes into the remaining 24 matchdays as favourite and finishes first in 77 per cent of runs. The closest challenger is Benfica (19%), followed by Sporting CP (4%).
Race for the Champions League
It’s tight for places 1–2: Benfica reach 75%, Sporting CP reach 26%.
Who goes down?
Estoril are most at risk: in 68 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 17–18). Also in danger: Casa Pia (37%), Rio Ave (32%), Marítimo (24%). Casa Pia are the most likely to take the detour via the Relegation play-off (Place 16) (19%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 213 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- Relegation play-offs are not simulated; the column shows the chance of finishing in the play-off place.
- If teams are level on points, head-to-head record decides first in this league; the simulation simply sorts by goal difference and goals scored.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
More season predictions
Bundesliga · 2. Bundesliga · 3. Liga · Premier League · LaLiga · Serie A · Ligue 1 · Eredivisie · Austrian Bundesliga · Championship · Süper Lig · Scottish Premiership · all leagues
Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.