Bundesliga prediction 2026/27: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Bundesliga season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 9 matchdays, 25 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | Champions LeaguePos. 1–4 | Europa LeaguePos. 5 | Conference League qualifyingPos. 6 | Relegation play-offPos. 16 | RelegationPos. 17–18 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 21 | 73 | 72% | 99% | <1% | <1% | – | – | 1.4 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 21 | 66 | 21% | 92% | 4% | 2% | – | – | 2.4 |
| 3 | Leipzig | 18 | 60 | 4% | 72% | 12% | 7% | – | <1% | 3.8 |
| 4 | Freiburg | 16 | 57 | 2% | 51% | 16% | 12% | <1% | <1% | 5.0 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 49 | <1% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 1% | 1% | 8.2 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 13 | 53 | 1% | 29% | 16% | 13% | <1% | <1% | 6.4 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 13 | 46 | – | 6% | 6% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 9.7 |
| 8 | Stuttgart | 12 | 51 | <1% | 20% | 13% | 14% | 1% | <1% | 7.3 |
| 9 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 12 | 46 | <1% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 9.9 |
| 10 | Hamburger SV | 12 | 43 | <1% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 11.2 |
| 11 | Mainz | 10 | 42 | <1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 11.9 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 10 | 38 | – | <1% | 1% | 1% | 13% | 19% | 13.6 |
| 13 | Augsburg | 9 | 42 | – | 2% | 2% | 3% | 8% | 9% | 11.9 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 9 | 46 | <1% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 9.5 |
| 15 | Köln | 9 | 41 | – | 1% | 2% | 2% | 10% | 12% | 12.5 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 7 | 36 | – | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 35% | 14.8 |
| 17 | Schalke | 6 | 34 | – | <1% | <1% | <1% | 16% | 41% | 15.2 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 32 | – | <1% | <1% | <1% | 14% | 58% | 16.2 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Bundesliga league table calculatorBundesliga tips
Who will win the Bundesliga title in 2026/27?
FC Bayern München goes into the remaining 25 matchdays as favourite and finishes first in 72 per cent of runs. The closest challenger is Borussia Dortmund (21%), followed by RB Leipzig (4%).
Race for the Champions League
It’s tight for places 1–4: RB Leipzig reach 72%, SC Freiburg reach 51%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen reach 29%.
Who goes down?
Borussia Mönchengladbach are most at risk: in 58 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 17–18). Also in danger: FC Schalke 04 (41%), 1. FC Union Berlin (35%), SC Paderborn 07 (19%). FC Schalke 04 are the most likely to take the detour via the Relegation play-off (Place 16) (16%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 228 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- Relegation play-offs are not simulated; the column shows the chance of finishing in the play-off place.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.