3. Liga prediction 2026/27: Promotion and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the 3. Liga season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 13 matchdays, 25 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | PromotionPos. 1–2 | Relegation play-off (promotion)Pos. 3 | RelegationPos. 17–20 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoria Köln | 29 | 73 | 47% | 75% | 12% | – | 2.0 |
| 2 | MSV Duisburg | 29 | 72 | 37% | 68% | 15% | <1% | 2.4 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiss Essen | 27 | 66 | 10% | 29% | 25% | <1% | 4.0 |
| 4 | Wehen Wiesbaden | 21 | 58 | 2% | 7% | 10% | 1% | 7.1 |
| 5 | Ingolstadt | 21 | 57 | 1% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 8.0 |
| 6 | Saarbrücken | 20 | 57 | 1% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 7.7 |
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 20 | 55 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 8.8 |
| 8 | Waldhof Mannheim | 19 | 55 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 9.1 |
| 9 | Hansa Rostock | 19 | 55 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 8.9 |
| 10 | Hoffenheim II | 16 | 52 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 9% | 10.6 |
| 11 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 16 | 49 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 19% | 12.4 |
| 12 | Meppen | 15 | 50 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 16% | 11.9 |
| 13 | Stuttgart II | 15 | 50 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 16% | 11.8 |
| 14 | Preußen Münster | 15 | 48 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 24% | 13.1 |
| 15 | Würzburger Kickers | 14 | 48 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 22% | 12.9 |
| 16 | Jahn Regensburg | 13 | 49 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 20% | 12.4 |
| 17 | Verl | 12 | 44 | – | <1% | <1% | 46% | 15.3 |
| 18 | Sonnenhof Großaspach | 12 | 40 | – | <1% | – | 68% | 17.1 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 10 | 40 | – | – | <1% | 65% | 16.9 |
| 20 | Havelse | 10 | 39 | – | – | – | 73% | 17.5 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: 3. Liga league table calculator3. Liga tips
Who will win the 3.-Liga title in 2026/27?
The title race is open. Viktoria Köln are narrowly ahead with 47 per cent. The closest challenger is MSV Duisburg (37%), followed by Rot-Weiss Essen (10%).
Who goes up?
The automatic promotion places (Places 1–2) are most often reached by Viktoria Köln (75%), followed by MSV Duisburg (68%) and Rot-Weiss Essen (29%).
Who goes down?
TSV Havelse are most at risk: in 73 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 17–20). Also in danger: SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (68%), Fortuna Köln (65%), SC Verl (46%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 253 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline at the league average and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- Relegation play-offs are not simulated; the column shows the chance of finishing in the play-off place.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.