LaLiga prediction 2026/27: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the LaLiga season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 11 matchdays, 27 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | Champions LeaguePos. 1–4 | Europa LeaguePos. 5 | Conference LeaguePos. 6 | RelegationPos. 18–20 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 30 | 88 | 74% | >99% | <1% | – | – | 1.3 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid | 28 | 77 | 9% | 97% | 2% | <1% | – | 2.7 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 27 | 80 | 17% | 99% | 0% | <1% | – | 2.2 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 23 | 65 | <1% | 63% | 19% | 8% | <1% | 4.6 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 19 | 58 | <1% | 17% | 23% | 17% | <1% | 6.9 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 18 | 54 | – | 7% | 13% | 14% | 2% | 8.6 |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 16 | 53 | <1% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 1% | 8.6 |
| 8 | Deportivo de A Coruña | 14 | 48 | – | 1% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 11.3 |
| 9 | Deportivo Alavés | 13 | 46 | – | 1% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 12.5 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 13 | 48 | – | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 11.6 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 12 | 52 | – | 5% | 11% | 12% | 3% | 9.2 |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 46 | – | 1% | 3% | 4% | 12% | 12.4 |
| 13 | Getafe | 12 | 44 | – | <1% | 1% | 2% | 19% | 13.8 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | 46 | – | 1% | 2% | 4% | 13% | 12.6 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 11 | 42 | – | <1% | 1% | 2% | 29% | 14.8 |
| 16 | Racing de Santander | 11 | 41 | – | <1% | <1% | 1% | 35% | 15.3 |
| 17 | Elche | 10 | 44 | – | <1% | 1% | 3% | 22% | 13.7 |
| 18 | Levante | 10 | 44 | – | <1% | 1% | 2% | 20% | 13.7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 40 | – | <1% | <1% | 1% | 39% | 15.6 |
| 20 | Málaga | 5 | 33 | – | – | <1% | <1% | 78% | 18.4 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: LaLiga league table calculatorLaLiga tips
Who will win the LaLiga title in 2026/27?
Barcelona goes into the remaining 27 matchdays as favourite and finishes first in 74 per cent of runs. The closest challenger is Real Madrid (17%), followed by Atlético Madrid (9%).
Race for the Champions League
It’s tight for places 1–4: Real Betis reach 63%, Real Sociedad reach 17%.
Who goes down?
Málaga are most at risk: in 78 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 18–20). Also in danger: Valencia (39%), Racing de Santander (35%), Osasuna (29%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 269 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- If teams are level on points, head-to-head record decides first in this league; the simulation simply sorts by goal difference and goals scored.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.