Kicktipp calculator: the best tips for your matchday
Pick a league and matchday or combine several competitions, set your prediction game’s scoring rule, done: the calculator shows the tip with the most expected points for every match, including jokers and the odds-based scoring rule.
What is Kicktipp?
Kicktipp is a German platform for football prediction games (office pools) among friends, colleagues or club members. The calculator works for any prediction game that awards points for the exact score, the goal difference and the outcome.
How the Kicktipp calculator works
For every match the calculator estimates how many goals both teams score on average. This gives a probability for every score from 0:0 to 6:6. It then plays every possible tip from 0:0 to 5:5 against all these scores and counts how many points the tip brings on average under your scoring rule. It suggests the tip with the highest value.
The expected goals come from a Poisson model: the home side’s home strength and the visitors’ away strength, each from the current season and shrunk towards the league average so that three good games don’t instantly turn a team into a high-flyer. If betting odds exist for the match, the estimate is aligned 60% with the market. Odds often know more about injuries, rotation and form than any table.
The Kicktipp 4/3/2 scoring rule
The standard in most prediction games: 4 points for the exact score, 3 points for the correct goal difference, 2 points for the correct outcome. If you tip 2:1 and it ends 3:2, you get 3 points. If it ends 1:0, also 3. At 3:1 still 2. Draws are a special case: a 1:1 tip when the match ends 2:2 only earns the 2 outcome points, because by default Kicktipp does not count goal difference separately for draws. Some groups change this, which is why the calculator has the switch “Goal difference on draws too”.
Why 2:1 and 1:1 so often come out on top
The most likely score is not automatically the best tip. A 2:1 collects points from many directions: exact at 2:1, goal difference at 1:0, 3:2 and 4:3, outcome for every other home win. A 1:0 hits the exact score about as often and also gets 3 points at 2:1, which is why the two are usually close. A 3:0 only pays off when one team is clearly superior.
For a draw, 1:1 is almost always the choice. 0:0 and 2:2 are rarer, and because a wrong draw only brings the outcome points anyway, all that matters is which draw is most likely. Even so, a draw tip only pays off in genuinely even matches; otherwise the narrow win of the slight favourite brings more.
Other scoring rules
With 3/2/1 or 5/3/1 the weights shift. The more the exact score counts compared with the outcome, the more scores like 1:0 or 2:0 pay off. Set your rule above and the tips are recalculated instantly.
Several competitions in one prediction game
Many groups tip several competitions together, such as the Bundesliga and the Champions League. Under “Combine several” you select all your group’s competitions and a time period: this week, the next 7 or 14 days, or the current matchday of each competition. The matches are then listed by kick-off, each with its competition, with the combined total above and “Copy tips” for all at once.
Find individual matches: your tip slip
Only tipping certain matches, such as all your club’s games? Search for the team name in the tip slip. Upper and lower case and umlauts don’t matter, “koln” also finds Köln. Press + to add a match to your tip slip, which stays saved in your browser until you clear it.
Using the joker well
A joker doubles the points for one match. It works best where the tip promises the most points, i.e. on the clearest favourite. The calculator marks this joker tip for each matchday. You can also set jokers yourself and choose how many per matchday; the total includes them.
Odds rule: points based on how others tip
Under the odds-based scoring rule your group decides the points: if almost everyone tips the favourite, its win brings little, while a draw or an underdog win brings a lot. Kicktipp calculates Max ÷ (10 × share of tips) − Max ÷ 10 + Min, rounded and limited to the minimum and maximum. The calculator estimates the distribution from the betting odds, optionally a little more favourite-heavy, as is common in many groups. This shows you when a draw or underdog tip pays off. You can also set a round multiplier, such as double points in the knockout stage.
FAQ
Which tip scores the most points on Kicktipp?
The tip with the highest expected value, i.e. the one that brings the most points averaged over all possible scores. Under standard 4/3/2 scoring that is usually 2:1 or 1:0 when the favourite wins, and often 1:1 or also 2:1 in evenly matched games.
Why does the calculator so rarely tip 3:0 or 0:0?
A 3:0 only beats a 2:1 if a thrashing is genuinely likely. With 2:1 you get the goal-difference points for every one-goal win and at least the outcome points for every other home win. A 0:0 only hits a single score, and 1:1 is almost always the more likely draw.
What does the 4/3/2 scoring rule mean?
It is Kicktipp’s default setting: 4 points for the exact score, 3 points for the correct goal difference (for example 2:1 tipped, 3:2 final score) and 2 points for the correct outcome (home win, draw or away win). If you tip a draw and the match ends in a different draw, you only get the 2 outcome points.
Can I set other scoring rules?
Yes. In the calculator you can freely set the points for exact score, goal difference and outcome, such as 3/2/1 or 5/3/2. There is also a switch for prediction games that count goal difference on draws as well. The best tips are recalculated instantly.
Where do the probabilities come from?
From a Poisson model based on the home and away goals of the current season. Where betting odds are available, the model is aligned 60% with the odds for win, draw, loss and over/under 2.5 goals, because the market prices in new information faster.
Can I tip several competitions together, such as the Bundesliga and the Champions League?
Yes. Under “Combine several” you choose any number of competitions and a time period, such as the next 7 or 14 days. The calculator then shows all matches sorted by kick-off, with the competition on each match, a combined points total and a list to copy. To add individual matches, for example only your club’s games, search for the team name in the tip slip and add them with +.
Which match should I play the joker on in Kicktipp?
A joker doubles the points for one match. It is worth most where you have the highest expected points, usually the clearest favourite win of the matchday. The calculator marks this joker tip and, if you like, adds it to the total; the number of jokers per matchday is adjustable.
How does the odds rule work on Kicktipp?
Under the odds-based scoring rule, the correct outcome earns more points the fewer players tipped it, capped by a minimum and maximum number of points. Kicktipp calculates Max ÷ (10 × share) − Max ÷ 10 + Min and rounds the result. Because the real tips of your group are only fixed at the match, the calculator estimates the distribution from the betting odds. This means a draw or underdog tip can promise more points than the favourite win.
What is the round multiplier?
Some prediction games award more points in later rounds, for example double in the knockout stage. The round multiplier multiplies all points. The best tip does not change, only the expected points.
Can I also use the calculator for the DFB-Pokal and other cups?
Yes. The DFB-Pokal, FA Cup, Copa del Rey, Coppa Italia and other cups appear in the selection with their upcoming rounds as soon as the matches are scheduled. As usual on Kicktipp, the result after 90 minutes counts; extra time and penalty shoot-outs do not. When teams from different leagues meet, the prediction relies mainly on the betting odds.
Is the Kicktipp calculator free?
Yes, with no sign-up and no cookies. Everything is calculated directly in your browser.
Kicktipp tips by league
Bundesliga · 2. Bundesliga · 3. Liga · Women's Bundesliga · DFB-Pokal · Champions League · Europa League · Premier League · LaLiga · Serie A · Ligue 1 · Eredivisie · Austrian Bundesliga · Swiss Super League · MLS · J1 League · Brasileirão Série A · Championship · LaLiga2 · Primeira Liga · Süper Lig · Saudi Pro League · Belgian Pro League · Chinese Super League · Allsvenskan · Ekstraklasa · Eliteserien · Chilean Primera División · League Two · FA Cup · Brazilian Série B · Liga I · Scottish Premiership · Greek Super League · Serie B · Superettan · Liga MX · Ligue 2 · Superliga · AFC Champions League Elite · Taça de Portugal · Copa do Brasil · Turkish Cup · Conference League · Scottish League Cup · KNVB Cup · Coupe de France · Emperor's Cup · Scottish Cup · Polish Cup · Austrian Cup · Swiss Cup · Greek Cup · Belgian Cup · Coppa Italia
Predictions without guarantee. Intended for prediction games among friends, not betting advice.