Saudi Pro League prediction 2026/27: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Saudi Pro League season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 12 matchdays, 22 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | AFC Champions League ElitePos. 2–3 | RelegationPos. 16–18 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 30 | 79 | 62% | 35% | – | 1.6 |
| 2 | Al Qadsiah | 28 | 71 | 13% | 66% | – | 2.7 |
| 3 | Al Nassr | 28 | 74 | 22% | 63% | – | 2.4 |
| 4 | Al Ittihad | 24 | 62 | 1% | 15% | – | 4.7 |
| 5 | NEOM | 22 | 56 | <1% | 3% | – | 6.0 |
| 6 | Al Ahli | 21 | 63 | 1% | 18% | – | 4.5 |
| 7 | Al Ettifaq | 19 | 50 | – | <1% | <1% | 7.6 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 15 | 40 | – | – | 5% | 11.0 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej | 15 | 43 | – | <1% | 2% | 10.0 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 14 | 44 | – | <1% | 1% | 9.2 |
| 11 | Al Kholood | 12 | 39 | – | – | 9% | 11.5 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 12 | 38 | – | – | 13% | 12.3 |
| 13 | Al Fayha | 11 | 37 | – | – | 14% | 12.4 |
| 14 | Al Hazem | 10 | 35 | – | – | 19% | 13.0 |
| 15 | Al Faisaly | 10 | 32 | – | – | 38% | 14.4 |
| 16 | Al Fateh | 6 | 29 | – | – | 62% | 15.7 |
| 17 | Al Taawoun | 5 | 30 | – | – | 53% | 15.2 |
| 18 | Abha | 3 | 24 | – | – | 83% | 16.8 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Saudi Pro League league table calculatorSaudi Pro League tips
Who will win the Saudi-Pro-League title in 2026/27?
Al Hilal goes into the remaining 22 matchdays as favourite and finishes first in 62 per cent of runs. The closest challenger is Al Nassr (22%), followed by Al Qadsiah (13%).
Race for the Champions League
It’s tight for places 2–3: Al Qadsiah reach 66%, Al Nassr reach 63%, Al Hilal reach 35%.
Who goes down?
Abha Club are most at risk: in 83 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 16–18). Also in danger: Al Fateh (62%), Al Taawoun (53%), Al Faisaly (38%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 202 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.