Ekstraklasa prediction 2026/27: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Ekstraklasa season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 14 matchdays, 20 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | EuropePos. 2–3 | RelegationPos. 16–18 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 31 | 71 | 74% | 23% | – | 1.4 |
| 2 | Górnik Zabrze | 31 | 64 | 18% | 61% | – | 2.7 |
| 3 | Legia Warschau | 24 | 58 | 4% | 40% | <1% | 4.4 |
| 4 | Pogoń Szczecin | 24 | 54 | 1% | 21% | <1% | 5.8 |
| 5 | Wisła Kraków | 24 | 52 | <1% | 12% | <1% | 6.8 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 22 | 50 | <1% | 8% | 1% | 7.5 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 22 | 51 | <1% | 10% | <1% | 7.3 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 21 | 52 | 1% | 14% | <1% | 6.6 |
| 9 | Motor Lublin | 19 | 45 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 10.3 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 18 | 50 | <1% | 9% | 1% | 7.7 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 18 | 44 | – | 1% | 7% | 11.1 |
| 12 | Wisła Płock | 15 | 42 | <1% | <1% | 12% | 12.0 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 14 | 40 | <1% | <1% | 19% | 12.6 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 38 | – | <1% | 31% | 13.8 |
| 15 | Cracovia | 12 | 37 | – | <1% | 35% | 14.1 |
| 16 | Śląsk Wrocław | 10 | 32 | – | – | 66% | 15.9 |
| 17 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 35 | – | <1% | 51% | 15.0 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 31 | – | – | 72% | 16.2 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Ekstraklasa league table calculatorEkstraklasa tips
Who will win the Ekstraklasa title in 2026/27?
Lech Poznań goes into the remaining 20 matchdays as favourite and finishes first in 74 per cent of runs. The closest challenger is Górnik Zabrze (18%), followed by Legia Warschau (4%).
Who goes down?
Wieczysta Kraków are most at risk: in 72 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 16–18). Also in danger: Śląsk Wrocław (66%), Raków Częstochowa (51%), Cracovia (35%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 185 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- If teams are level on points, head-to-head record decides first in this league; the simulation simply sorts by goal difference and goals scored.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.