Chinese Super League prediction 2026: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Chinese Super League season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 29 matchdays, 1 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | AFCPos. 2–3 | RelegationPos. 15–16 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beijing Guoan | 55 | 55 | >99% | <1% | – | 1.0 |
| 2 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 52 | 53 | <1% | >99% | – | 2.5 |
| 3 | Shandong Taishan | 50 | 52 | – | 66% | – | 3.0 |
| 4 | Dalian Yingbo | 49 | 50 | – | 19% | – | 4.5 |
| 5 | Shanghai Port | 47 | 49 | – | 9% | – | 4.8 |
| 6 | Shanghai Shenhua | 47 | 49 | – | 6% | – | 5.1 |
| 7 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 41 | 42 | – | – | – | 7.7 |
| 8 | Yunnan Yukun | 40 | 42 | – | – | – | 7.9 |
| 9 | Zhejiang | 39 | 41 | – | – | – | 8.7 |
| 10 | Qingdao West Coast | 39 | 40 | – | – | – | 9.7 |
| 11 | Chongqing | 36 | 36 | – | – | – | 11.3 |
| 12 | Henan | 34 | 35 | – | – | – | 11.9 |
| 13 | Shenzhen Peng City | 32 | 33 | – | – | – | 12.9 |
| 14 | Liaoning Tieren | 29 | 30 | – | – | 16% | 14.1 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 27 | 28 | – | – | 84% | 14.8 |
| 16 | Qingdao Hainiu | 21 | 23 | – | – | 100% | 16.0 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Chinese Super League league table calculatorChinese Super League tips
Who will win the Chinese-Super-League title in 2026?
Beijing Guoan is the clear title favourite: the team finishes first in over 99 per cent of simulations. The closest challenger is Chengdu Rongcheng (<1%).
Who goes down?
Qingdao Hainiu are most at risk: in over 99 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 15–16). Also in danger: Wuhan Three Towns (84%), Liaoning Tieren (16%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 7 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- The allocation of European and relegation places may still shift due to cup winners or licensing decisions.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.