Crystal Palace vs Liverpool prediction: no Mateta, no Sarr

Sunday, 3pm at Selhurst Park: 19th in the table host sixth. The bookmakers make Liverpool clear favourites (1.55), and this time the team news also points firmly towards the visitors.

Form and table: Palace near the bottom, Liverpool within striking distance

Crystal Palace have only seven points from nine games and sit in the relegation zone. Their goal record of 9:21 shows the problem: Palace concede too many at the back. At home they have only one win from their last four games (3:1 against Nottingham Forest), along with defeats against Newcastle and Ipswich. On average, Palace have conceded 2.5 goals per game at home.

Liverpool are sixth on 15 points, just one point off the Champions League places. Away from home they are unbeaten in four games: 2:1 at Brentford, 1:0 at Bournemouth, 2:0 at Ipswich, plus a 2:2. Liverpool scored in every one of those games.

Team news: Palace without their entire attack

This is the decisive factor. Jean-Philippe Mateta was sent off in the 0:2 defeat at Tottenham, the appeal failed and he is suspended. Ismaila Sarr has missed the last four games and, according to the manager, will only return after the international break. That leaves Palace without the two players through whom almost all of their goal threat runs. Sports Mole speaks of an "attacking crisis".

On top of that comes the workload: Palace played in Europe on Thursday (1:1 against Hoffenheim).

Liverpool also have absentees, including Hugo Ekitiké, Jeremie Frimpong and Conor Bradley, while Ryan Gravenberch is a doubt. That weakens their depth, but not the core of the team.

What it means for the match

Palace have to attack without a genuine centre-forward against a Liverpool defence that has recently conceded less than one goal per game on average away from home. Liverpool, on the other hand, face a defence that regularly concedes two or more goals at home. Recent head-to-heads have been high-scoring (2:1 to Palace, 3:1 to Liverpool).

Our tip: Liverpool to win

We are backing Liverpool to win at odds of 1.55. We expect a 1:2 scoreline: Palace should be able to force a goal in front of their own fans, but without Mateta and Sarr they lack the cutting edge to hold Liverpool for 90 minutes.

For

• Mateta suspended, Sarr injured: Palace are missing their two most important attackers.
• Liverpool are unbeaten in four away games and scored every time.
• Palace concede an average of 2.5 goals at home.
• Palace played in Europe on Thursday.

Against

• Liverpool are also missing several players, including Ekitiké.
• Palace won the second-to-last head-to-head 2:1 at their own ground.
• Teams fighting relegation are often more awkward at home than the table suggests.