Atlético vs Barcelona prediction: summit clash, depleted Barça

First against second, two points apart, Sunday night at 9pm in the Metropolitano. If Atlético win, Diego Simeone's side go top of the table. The bookmakers make Barcelona favourites (1.75), while an Atlético win pays 3.90. For us, the more interesting question is not who wins but how many goals there will be.

Form and table: two sides in form, both with scratches

Atlético have won seven LaLiga games in a row, most recently 2:0 at Levante. At home they have four wins from their last five games with a goal difference of 11:3, including a 2:1 against Real Madrid. Midweek, though, came a setback: 0:2 against Bayern Munich in the Champions League, their first defeat in nine competitive matches.

Barcelona lead the table with 30 points and a remarkable 46:12 goal record. Away from home, Barça have won all of their last five games, scoring 22 and conceding 5. They have had setbacks recently too: 1:2 in the Clásico against Real, 2:4 at PSG. Those were followed by a 6:1 against Alavés and a 3:0 against Aston Villa.

Team news: Barça's list keeps growing

According to Sports Illustrated, Barcelona are without Dani Olmo, Xavi Espart, Andreas Christensen, Roony Bardghji and Rodri, the new signing in central midfield. Jules Koundé and Eric García are doubtful. Hansi Flick has to choose between Frenkie de Jong and Marc Bernal in defensive midfield, and young Brian Fariñas could start at right-back.

For Atlético, SI reports that only Cuti Romero is out. Johnny Cardoso is back in training, Koke has returned after his comeback against Bayern, and Hjulmand is available again after his Champions League suspension. Álex Baena is enjoying perhaps the best spell of his career, and Julián Álvarez faces the club that wanted to sign him in the summer.

What it means for the match

Barcelona's attack with Lamine Yamal and Raphinha almost always scores, but Atlético showed against Bayern that their defence can be breached. On the other side, a Barça back line with several stand-ins faces an Atlético attack in top form. Both teams will play to win, and settling for a 0:0 suits neither of them.

Recent meetings back this up: there have been goals in each of the last five encounters, and the two most recent league games ended 3:1 and 1:2 in Barça's favour.

Our tip: goals rather than a winner

Who wins is an open question for us. Whether there will be goals hardly is. We are backing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.28. The odds are low, but in our view this is one of the safest bets of the weekend. As a score, we consider 2:2 realistic.

Higher odds are available with over 3.5 goals (1.70). That is justifiable given the circumstances, but the risk is considerably higher.

For

• Barcelona have scored 46 goals in eleven games, 22 in their last five away games.
• Barça are without two regulars in Christensen and Rodri, and Koundé and Eric García are doubtful.
• Atlético conceded two goals against Bayern and play on the front foot at home.
• There were goals in each of the last five meetings.

Against

• Simeone's teams can deliberately shut a game down if a draw is enough.
• Atlético conceded an average of only 0.6 goals in their last five home games.
• In top matches of this size, the first 30 minutes are often cautious.