Köln vs Leverkusen prediction: Bayer wobble, FC unbeaten at home

For Leverkusen it is the derby, for Köln the "neighbours' clash". Whatever you call it: on Sunday at 3:30pm two teams meet who are currently heading in opposite directions. The bookmakers still make Bayer clear favourites (away win 1.85). We think that is overstated.

Form and table: Bayer are wobbling

Leverkusen have lost three of their last four competitive games: 0:3 at Hoffenheim, 2:4 against Stuttgart and, most recently on Thursday, 0:1 against Marseille in the Europa League. In the league, Die Werkself have slipped to sixth, and the Champions League places are under threat.

The biggest problem is the defence. Leverkusen last had 16 goals conceded after eight matchdays more than 40 years ago, WDR reports. There is also unrest in the squad: after the Marseille game, Robert Andrich publicly criticised the defending of his teammate Aleix García. Head coach Carles Martínez appeared tense at the press conference.

Köln are 15th on nine points, just two clear of the relegation play-off place. But: at home, FC are still unbeaten this season, and the team have gone three games without defeat.

Tactics: where is the space?

Köln have a clear problem that René Wagner openly addresses: finishing. According to WDR, Köln and Leverkusen are only 2.5 goals apart on expected goals, but nine apart on actual goals. No team converts its chances worse. Said El Mala has scored only two goals from 29 shots.

Against deep-lying opponents such as Union recently (1:1), FC struggle. Leverkusen, however, will not sit back with ten men behind the ball, and that is exactly what suits Köln. El Mala is extremely dangerous on the counter; last season he scored five goals from counter-attacks, the best figure in the league. Wagner wants a "nasty game": the opponents should feel from the start that this will be a hard afternoon.

For Leverkusen, a lot depends on Ibrahim Maza and Patrik Schick. Schick has seven goals this season, but against Marseille the team lacked any cutting edge. And Bayer had to play on Thursday, while Köln had a full week of training.

Our tip: Köln avoid defeat

The odds imply a winning chance of over 50 per cent for Leverkusen. For a team that has lost three of four games, is more open at the back than it has been in decades and plays three days after a European fixture away to a side that is strong at home, that is too much. We are backing double chance 1X at odds of 1.85: Köln win or draw.

Given Bayer's defence, a goal is all but certain. If you like more risk: both teams to score (BTTS) also fits this game.

For

• Köln are unbeaten at home this season.
• Leverkusen have lost three of their last four competitive games.
• 16 goals conceded after eight matchdays, Bayer's worst record in over 40 years.
• Leverkusen played in the Europa League on Thursday, Köln had a full week.

Against

• Köln have been waiting almost seven years for a home win against Leverkusen.
• Köln's finishing is the worst in the league.
• With Schick and Maza, Leverkusen have more individual quality in attack.