Primeira Liga · Sunday, 08/11/2026 · 19:00
Vitória Guimarães vs Porto Prediction, Tips & Odds
Team pages: Vitória Guimarães · Porto
Odds may change before kick-off · 18+ · not betting advice
On Sunday (8 November, 19:00), Vitória Guimarães host Porto.
The situation: Vitória Guimarães are in a relegation battle – Porto have won 8 games in a row
Porto are in position 1 with 30 points, ahead of the hosts (9 points, position 13). Goal difference: 10-10 for Vitória Guimarães, 25-4 for Porto. Vitória Guimarães are just 2 points above the relegation zone. Porto currently occupy first place, 5 points clear.
Form guide Vitória Guimarães: Inconsistent at home
At home they recently beat Marítimo (5-0). They drew with Moreirense (1-1) and Casa Pia (0-0). Vitória Guimarães picked up 2 wins from their last 5 home games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
Form guide Porto: Strong away too
On the road, Porto recently played 1-0 at Gil Vicente, 2-1 at Marítimo and 4-1 at Casa Pia. Record in the last 5 away games: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats, 12-2 goals. Porto scored in every one of those games.
Vitória Guimarães at home, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Porto away, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Head-to-head: Evenly matched record
Record in the last 2 meetings: no wins for Vitória Guimarães, 2 for Porto, 0 draws. There were 2.0 goals per game on average. Their last meeting ended 0-1 (Vitória Guimarães vs Porto, 18/01/2026).
- 18/01/2026 Vitória Guimarães – Porto 0-1
- 11/08/2025 Porto – Vitória Guimarães 3-0
Injuries and suspensions
Vitória Guimarães are without: Alioune Ndoye (suspended).
Porto are without: William Gomes (ankle injury), Nehuen Perez (suspended), Dominik Prpic (suspended), Vasco Sousa (fracture).
Late absences on matchday may not be included yet.
Who will score?
Top scorers, odds and striker form – Primeira Liga: Primeira Liga goalscorer tips.
Primeira Liga table
| Pos | Team | P | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 10 | 25-4 | 30 |
| 2 | Benfica | 10 | 27-8 | 25 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | 24-11 | 24 |
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 14-15 | 12 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 10 | 15-19 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória Guimarães | 10 | 10-10 | 9 |
| 14 | Marítimo | 10 | 9-21 | 8 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 11 | 6-20 | 8 |
Vitória Guimarães vs Porto odds
Despite playing away, Porto are clear favourites with the bookmakers. An away win pays just 1.50, a draw 4.20, a home win 6.00. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.77.
| Bet | Odds | implied by odds | our view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória Guimarães to win | 6.00 | 16% | 21% |
| Draw | 4.20 | 22% | 25% |
| Porto to win | 1.50 | 62% | 55% |
| Double chance 1X | 2.50 | 38% | 45% |
| Double chance X2 | 1.08 | 84% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 76% | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 53% | 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.10 | 30% | 26% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1.33 | 70% | 74% |
“Implied by odds”: the probability contained in the odds (without the bookmaker margin). “Our view”: the odds and our statistical model combined.
Betting tip & prediction: Vitória Guimarães vs Porto
In short: We are backing Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.35. Our score prediction: 0-1. We put the chance at around 73%, while the odds imply only 69%. That is where the value in this bet lies.
For
- Only 1 of Vitória Guimarães’s last 5 home games had three or more goals.
Against
- Away from home, Porto saw three or more goals in 3 of 5 games.
- There are outliers: one of these games recently had 5 goals.
Tip: Under 3.5 goals · Odds 1.35 · Prediction 0-1 · Risk low
FAQ: Vitória Guimarães vs Porto
When do Vitória Guimarães play Porto?
Kick-off is on Sunday, 08/11/2026, at 19:00 (Primeira Liga).
Who are the favourites in Vitória Guimarães vs Porto?
Porto are clear favourites: an away win pays 1.50, a home win 6.00.
What is the tip for Vitória Guimarães vs Porto?
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.35. We expect a 0-1. Risk: low.
How did recent meetings between Vitória Guimarães and Porto go?
Record in the last 2 meetings: no wins for Vitória Guimarães, 2 for Porto, 0 draws. There were 2.0 goals per game on average. Their last meeting ended 0-1 (Vitória Guimarães vs Porto, 18/01/2026).
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