MLS · Saturday, 07/11/2026 · 22:00
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Team pages: Philadelphia Union · Toronto FC
Full time 4-1 · Tip “Under 3.5 goals” lost
Odds may change before kick-off · 18+ · not betting advice
Toronto have taken just 3 points from their last 5 away games. On Saturday (7 November, 22:00), they travel to Philadelphia Union.
The situation: Philadelphia Union have gone 4 games without a win – Toronto want to stay near the top
Philadelphia Union are in position 12 with 47 points, Toronto follow in position 23 with 39 points. Goal difference: 62-51 for Philadelphia Union, 51-63 for Toronto. Philadelphia Union are just one point off a wildcard (per conference) place. Toronto are 12 points off a wildcard (per conference) place.
Form guide Philadelphia Union: Strong at home
At home they recently beat Real Salt Lake (2-1). There was also a defeat against New England Revolution (1-2). Against Charlotte (2-2) they could only draw. Philadelphia Union picked up 3 wins from their last 5 home games, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
Form guide Toronto: A problem on the road
On the road, Toronto recently played 1-3 at Atlanta United, 2-4 at Columbus Crew and 2-0 at New York Red Bulls. Record in the last 5 away games: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats, 6-12 goals. Toronto scored in 4 of those 5 games.
Philadelphia Union at home, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Toronto away, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Head-to-head: Plenty of draws
The only meeting in the last two seasons ended 3-3 (Toronto vs Philadelphia Union, 22/04/2026).
- 22/04/2026 Toronto FC – Philadelphia Union 3-3
Injuries and suspensions
Philadelphia Union are without: Milan Iloski (thigh injury), Philippe Ndinga (muscle injury), Sal Olivas (ineligible), Kaiden Moore (ineligible).
Toronto are without: Walker Zimmerman (ankle injury), Nelson Palacio (leg injury), Luka Gavran (arm or hand injury), Henry Wingo (thigh injury).
Late absences on matchday may not be included yet.
MLS table
| Pos | Team | P | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Houston Dynamo | 33 | 43-42 | 51 |
| 11 | Los Angeles FC | 33 | 51-38 | 47 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union | 33 | 62-51 | 47 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 33 | 55-49 | 44 |
| 14 | LA Galaxy | 33 | 49-55 | 44 |
| 21 | Minnesota United | 33 | 53-57 | 41 |
| 22 | New York City FC | 33 | 48-45 | 39 |
| 23 | Toronto FC | 33 | 51-63 | 39 |
| 24 | New York Red Bulls | 33 | 45-62 | 39 |
| 25 | San Diego FC | 33 | 57-62 | 38 |
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto odds
The bookmakers make Philadelphia Union clear favourites. A home win pays just 1.35, a draw 5.20 and a Toronto win 6.00. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.33.
| Bet | Odds | implied by odds | our view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union to win | 1.35 | 67% | 63% |
| Draw | 5.20 | 17% | 20% |
| Toronto to win | 6.00 | 15% | 17% |
| Double chance 1X | 1.03 | 85% | 83% |
| Double chance X2 | 2.95 | 33% | 37% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.07 | 85% | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 69% | 62% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.90 | 31% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.85 | 49% | 41% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1.80 | 51% | 59% |
“Implied by odds”: the probability contained in the odds (without the bookmaker margin). “Our view”: the odds and our statistical model combined.
Betting tip & prediction: Philadelphia Union vs Toronto
In short: We are backing Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.80. Our score prediction: 1-0. We put the chance at around 59%, while the odds imply only 51%. That is where the value in this bet lies.
For
- The odds match our numbers.
Against
- At home, Philadelphia Union saw three or more goals in 5 of 5 games.
- Away from home, Toronto saw three or more goals in 3 of 5 games.
- There are outliers: one of these games recently had 6 goals.
Tip: Under 3.5 goals · Odds 1.80 · Prediction 1-0 · Risk medium
FAQ: Philadelphia Union vs Toronto
When do Philadelphia Union play Toronto?
Kick-off is on Saturday, 07/11/2026, at 22:00 (MLS).
Who are the favourites in Philadelphia Union vs Toronto?
Philadelphia Union are clear favourites: a home win pays 1.35, a Toronto win 6.00.
What is the tip for Philadelphia Union vs Toronto?
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.80. We expect a 1-0. Risk: medium.
How did recent meetings between Philadelphia Union and Toronto go?
The only meeting in the last two seasons ended 3-3 (Toronto vs Philadelphia Union, 22/04/2026).
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