Odds rule (Kicktipp) explained

In normal prediction leagues, the maths is simple: the correct outcome always earns the same number of points, whether you picked the favourite or the underdog. The odds rule changes that. On Kicktipp, a prediction-league platform popular in Germany, it is an optional scoring rule and works much like betting odds – except that the "odds" are derived from your fellow players' predictions.

The principle

The admin sets a minimum and a maximum number of points for the outcome, for example 2 and 6. If almost all players predicted the same outcome, it earns close to the minimum. If hardly anyone predicted it, it earns up to the maximum. Bonus points may be available for the correct goal difference and the exact score. Kicktipp explains exactly how the points are calculated in its overview of scoring rules.

What changes for tactics

• The points depend on the others. Before predictions close, you usually do not know theirs and have to estimate them.
• Betting odds are a good approximation: most players predict roughly in line with how the market sees the chances, often with an even stronger lean towards the favourite.
• Draw predictions become considerably more interesting than under the standard rule, because draws are rarely predicted.
• With only a few players, the points fluctuate strongly. A single dissenting prediction changes the distribution.

The Kicktipp calculator estimates the distribution of fellow players' predictions from the betting odds and shows which prediction earns the most expected points under the odds rule. The values are explicitly estimates.