Outcome, goal difference, exact score (Kicktipp) explained

In a Kicktipp league (Kicktipp is a prediction-league platform popular in Germany), you predict an exact score for every match. How many points you get depends on how close your prediction is to the actual result. Kicktipp distinguishes three levels.

The three levels

• Exact score: Your prediction is spot on. Predicted 2:1, final score 2:1.
• Goal difference: The winner and the margin are right, the goals are not. Predicted 2:1, final score 3:2 or 1:0.
• Outcome: Only the result is right – home win, draw or away win. Predicted 2:1, final score 3:0.

By default, these earn 4, 3 and 2 points. Many leagues change this, for example to 3/2/1 or 5/3/2. As a rule, the result after 90 minutes counts.

The exception for draws

A draw always has a goal difference of zero. If goal difference counted for draws, every draw prediction would earn 3 points for every draw. That is why, under the standard rule, a wrong draw prediction only earns the outcome points: predicted 1:1, final score 2:2, gives 2 points. Some leagues do, however, switch on goal difference for draws.

What follows from this

• The outcome is the foundation. Whoever gets it right most often collects the most points.
• Narrow scores such as 1:0, 2:1 and 2:0 often earn the most points when favourites win, because they frequently get the goal difference right too.
• Draw predictions rarely pay off under the standard rules, unless the match is very even and low-scoring.
• If your league changes the points, the best prediction changes too.