Napoli vs Lazio prediction: depleted Napoli host leaders Lazio

Sunday lunchtime, 12:30pm at the Maradona: ninth in the table host the leaders. That sounds like a clear-cut job for the visitors, but it is not that simple. The bookmakers even make Napoli narrow favourites (home win 2.35, Lazio 2.80). We see it differently.

Form and table: Lazio on top, Napoli in no man's land

Lazio lead Serie A with 28 points from ten games, three ahead of Inter. Gennaro Gattuso's side have won six games in a row and their last five away games in succession, with a 14:3 goal record. That includes a 3:0 at Juventus in Turin and a 6:2 at Sassuolo.

Napoli are only ninth on 14 points and six points off the European places. For Massimiliano Allegri, the game is therefore already pivotal: one defeat, and the gap to the top becomes dangerously large.

Team news: the decisive factor

This is the heart of the match. According to Gazzetta dello Sport (as of Saturday evening), Napoli are without Buongiorno, Lobotka, Di Lorenzo, Favasuli and Alisson Santos, while David Neres, Spinazzola and Badiashile are doubtful. Marianucci is suspended after his red card against Juventus. That is effectively half the first-choice defence plus the midfield metronome. On the plus side, Højlund and Rrahmani return to the starting line-up.

On top of that comes the workload: midweek, Napoli lost 1:4 to Porto in the Champions League. Allegri has to reshape his side against the league's form team.

Lazio are without Zaccagni, Gudmundsson is doubtful and Tavares is touch and go after muscle problems. Pinamonti comes into the attack in place of Zaccagni, with Noslin moving to the left wing. That weakens Lazio up front, but nowhere near as much as the absences on the other side.

What it means for the match

Lazio do not need to win here to be satisfied. Gattuso's side are compact away from home, have conceded only three goals in their last five games on the road and thrive on quick transitions. That is exactly what makes them dangerous against an improvised Napoli defence.

Napoli will have to take the initiative in front of their own fans. Their recent home record has been solid (wins against Bologna and Frosinone, 3:3 against Roma), but with this injury situation and the Porto game in their legs, they lack the stability that usually defines Allegri's teams.

The head-to-head record fits the picture: the last two meetings were both won 2:0 by the away side, most recently Lazio at the Maradona in April.

Our tip: Lazio avoid defeat

In our view, the odds on a Napoli win (2.35) reflect the name more than the current situation. We are backing double chance X2 at odds of 1.50: Lazio win or it ends in a draw. We consider 1:1 the most likely score, and a Lazio win is closer than a Napoli win.

For

• Lazio have won five away games in a row, 14:3 on goals.
• Napoli are missing three regulars in Buongiorno, Di Lorenzo and Lobotka, and Marianucci is suspended.
• Napoli lost 1:4 to Porto in the Champions League midweek.
• The last two meetings were both won by the away side.

Against

• Lazio are missing their most important winger in Zaccagni, and Gudmundsson is doubtful.
• Allegri's teams are often particularly awkward after setbacks.
• Late returns for Napoli (Neres, Spinazzola) would change the picture.