Primeira Liga · Saturday, 07/11/2026 · 21:30
Sporting CP vs Moreirense Prediction, Tips & Odds
Team pages: Sporting CP · Moreirense
Full time 1-0 · Tip “Under 3.5 goals” won
Odds may change before kick-off · 18+ · not betting advice
On Saturday (7 November, 21:30), Sporting host Moreirense.
The situation: Sporting are chasing Europe – Moreirense are chasing Europe
Sporting are in position 3 with 21 points, Moreirense follow in position 9 with 14 points. Goal difference: 23-11 for Sporting, 13-17 for Moreirense. Sporting are just one point off a Champions League place. Moreirense are 6 points off a Conference League place.
Form guide Sporting: Strong at home
At home they recently beat Nacional de Madeira (2-0). There was also a defeat against Académico Viseu (1-2). Against Arouca (2-2) they could only draw. Sporting picked up 3 wins from their last 5 home games, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
Form guide Moreirense: Inconsistent on the road
On the road, Moreirense recently played 3-1 at Estoril, 1-1 at Vitória de Guimarães and 1-2 at Porto. Record in the last 5 away games: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 6-8 goals. Moreirense scored in 4 of those 5 games.
Sporting at home, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Moreirense away, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Head-to-head: Evenly matched record
Record in the last 2 meetings: 2 wins for Sporting, 0 for Moreirense, 0 draws. There were 3.0 goals per game on average. Their last meeting ended 0-3 (Moreirense vs Sporting, 21/02/2026).
- 21/02/2026 Moreirense – Sporting CP 0-3
- 22/09/2025 Sporting CP – Moreirense 3-0
Injuries and suspensions
Sporting are without: Zeno Debast (suspended), Nuno Santos (lacking match fitness).
Moreirense are without: Kiko (injury), A. Duville-Parsemain (injury), Fabiano Silva (knee injury).
Late absences on matchday may not be included yet.
Who will score?
Top scorers, odds and striker form – Primeira Liga: Primeira Liga goalscorer tips.
Primeira Liga table
| Pos | Team | P | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 10 | 25-4 | 30 |
| 2 | Benfica | 10 | 27-8 | 25 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 23-11 | 21 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 10 | 15-6 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 13-8 | 20 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 8-7 | 15 |
| 8 | Braga | 10 | 12-11 | 14 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 13-17 | 14 |
| 10 | Famalicão | 11 | 15-14 | 13 |
| 11 | Alverca | 10 | 13-14 | 11 |
Sporting vs Moreirense odds
The bookmakers make Sporting clear favourites. A home win pays just 1.09, a draw 10.00 and a Moreirense win 19.00. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.40.
| Bet | Odds | implied by odds | our view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting to win | 1.09 | 86% | 71% |
| Draw | 10.00 | 9% | 15% |
| Moreirense to win | 19.00 | 5% | 14% |
| Double chance X2 | 6.50 | 14% | 29% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.09 | 85% | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 64% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.85 | 33% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.93 | 48% | 44% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1.80 | 52% | 56% |
“Implied by odds”: the probability contained in the odds (without the bookmaker margin). “Our view”: the odds and our statistical model combined.
Betting tip & prediction: Sporting vs Moreirense
In short: Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.80. We expect a 1-1. We put the chance at around 56%, while the odds imply only 52%. That is where the value in this bet lies.
For
- The odds match our numbers.
Against
- At home, Sporting saw three or more goals in 4 of 5 games.
- Away from home, Moreirense saw three or more goals in 3 of 5 games.
- There are outliers: one of these games recently had 5 goals.
Tip: Under 3.5 goals · Odds 1.80 · Prediction 1-1 · Risk medium
FAQ: Sporting vs Moreirense
When do Sporting play Moreirense?
Kick-off is on Saturday, 07/11/2026, at 21:30 (Primeira Liga).
Who are the favourites in Sporting vs Moreirense?
Sporting are clear favourites: a home win pays 1.09, a Moreirense win 19.00.
What is the tip for Sporting vs Moreirense?
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.80. We expect a 1-1. Risk: medium.
How did recent meetings between Sporting and Moreirense go?
Record in the last 2 meetings: 2 wins for Sporting, 0 for Moreirense, 0 draws. There were 3.0 goals per game on average. Their last meeting ended 0-3 (Moreirense vs Sporting, 21/02/2026).
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