Serie A · Sunday, 08/11/2026 · 15:00
Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction, Tips & Odds
Odds may change before kick-off · 18+ · not betting advice
It is Genoa vs Milan on Sunday (8 November, 15:00).
The situation: Genoa have won 3 games in a row – Milan are on course for Europe
Milan are in position 5 with 21 points, ahead of the hosts (13 points, position 12). Goal difference: 10-14 for Genoa, 21-12 for Milan. Milan currently occupy a Europa League place, but only one point clear.
Form guide Genoa: Strong at home
Recent home wins came against Juventus (2-0), Venezia (1-0) and Fiorentina (2-1). Genoa picked up 3 wins from their last 5 home games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
Form guide Milan: Hard to beat away
On the road, Milan recently played 2-0 at Udinese, 1-1 at Sassuolo and 2-2 at Lazio. Record in the last 5 away games: 2 wins, 3 draws, no defeats, 8-5 goals. Milan scored in every one of those games.
Genoa at home, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Milan away, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Head-to-head: Plenty of draws
Record in the last 2 meetings: no wins for Genoa, 1 for Milan, 1 draw. There were 2.5 goals per game on average. Their last meeting ended 1-2 (Genoa vs Milan, 17/05/2026).
- 17/05/2026 Genoa – AC Milan 1-2
- 08/01/2026 AC Milan – Genoa 1-1
Injuries and suspensions
Genoa are without: Vitinha (suspended), Lorenzo Venturino (knee injury), Elias Havel (thigh injury), Joi Xheto Nuredini (injury).
Milan are without: Strahinja Pavlović (injury), Samuel Chukwueze (hip injury), Alexis Saelemaekers (ankle injury), Matteo Gabbia (thigh injury), Fikayo Tomori (thigh injury).
Late absences on matchday may not be included yet.
Who will score?
Top scorers, odds and striker form – Serie A: Serie A goalscorer tips.
Serie A table
| Pos | Team | P | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Inter Milan | 10 | 26-13 | 25 |
| 4 | Como | 10 | 18-8 | 23 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 21-12 | 21 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 24-15 | 20 |
| 7 | Juventus | 10 | 13-10 | 17 |
| 10 | Napoli | 10 | 17-13 | 14 |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 15-17 | 14 |
| 12 | Genoa | 10 | 10-14 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 16-20 | 11 |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 12-22 | 10 |
Genoa vs Milan odds
Milan are slight favourites: an away win pays 1.87, a draw 3.40, a home win 4.30. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.05.
| Bet | Odds | implied by odds | our view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa to win | 4.30 | 22% | 26% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 28% | 27% |
| Milan to win | 1.87 | 50% | 47% |
| Double chance 1X | 1.90 | 50% | 53% |
| Double chance X2 | 1.16 | 78% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 70% | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 54% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.90 | 24% | 26% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1.22 | 76% | 74% |
“Implied by odds”: the probability contained in the odds (without the bookmaker margin). “Our view”: the odds and our statistical model combined.
Betting tip & prediction: Genoa vs Milan
In short: We are backing Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.25. Our score prediction: 1-1. We put the chance at around 73%. The odds reflect that quite accurately, so this tip is no bargain.
For
- Only 2 of Genoa’s last 5 home games had three or more goals.
- Only 2 of Milan’s last 5 away games had three or more goals.
Against
- There are outliers: one of these games recently had 5 goals.
Tip: Under 3.5 goals · Odds 1.25 · Prediction 1-1 · Risk low
FAQ: Genoa vs Milan
When do Genoa play Milan?
Kick-off is on Sunday, 08/11/2026, at 15:00 (Serie A).
Who are the favourites in Genoa vs Milan?
Milan are favourites: an away win pays 1.87, a home win 4.30.
What is the tip for Genoa vs Milan?
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.25. We expect a 1-1. Risk: low.
How did recent meetings between Genoa and Milan go?
Record in the last 2 meetings: no wins for Genoa, 1 for Milan, 1 draw. There were 2.5 goals per game on average. Their last meeting ended 1-2 (Genoa vs Milan, 17/05/2026).
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