Argentine Primera División · Saturday, 07/11/2026 · 21:30
Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Team pages: Boca Juniors · Defensa y Justicia
Full time 1-0 · Tip “Under 3.5 goals” won
Odds may change before kick-off · 18+ · not betting advice
5 home games, 5 wins, 10-2 goals. Boca Juniors are hard to beat at home. On Saturday (7 November, 21:30), Defensa y Justicia visit.
The situation: Boca Juniors have won 3 games in a row – Defensa y Justicia want to stay near the top
After 31 games, Boca Juniors are in position 4 with 60 points. Defensa y Justicia have collected 47 points and sit in position 11. Goal difference: 45-23 for Boca Juniors, 39-35 for Defensa y Justicia. Defensa y Justicia are 9 points off a knockout round (per group) place.
Form guide Boca Juniors: A force at home
Recent home wins came against River Plate (1-0), Talleres de Córdoba (2-1) and Unión (3-0). Boca Juniors picked up 5 wins from their last 5 home games, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
Form guide Defensa y Justicia: Strong away too
On the road, Defensa y Justicia recently played 2-1 at Talleres de Córdoba, 2-0 at Unión and 2-2 at Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero. Record in the last 5 away games: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat, 8-5 goals. Defensa y Justicia scored in 4 of those 5 games.
Boca Juniors at home, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Defensa y Justicia away, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Head-to-head: Goals expected
The only meeting in the last two seasons ended 0-4 to Boca Juniors (Defensa y Justicia vs Boca Juniors, 23/04/2026).
- 23/04/2026 Defensa y Justicia – Boca Juniors 0-4
Injuries and suspensions
Boca Juniors are without: Tomás Aranda (fracture), Adam Bareiro (back problems), Agustín Marchesín (cruciate ligament injury), Ángel Romero (muscle injury), Simon Rivero (cruciate ligament injury).
Defensa y Justicia have no known absentees.
Late absences on matchday may not be included yet.
Argentine Primera División table
| Pos | Team | P | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rosario Central | 34 | 49-31 | 65 |
| 3 | River Plate | 36 | 50-31 | 62 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 31 | 45-23 | 60 |
| 5 | Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata | 34 | 45-41 | 60 |
| 6 | Belgrano | 36 | 41-31 | 59 |
| 9 | Instituto | 31 | 41-30 | 54 |
| 10 | Lanús | 32 | 36-28 | 49 |
| 11 | Defensa y Justicia | 31 | 39-35 | 47 |
| 12 | Barracas Central | 32 | 32-28 | 47 |
| 13 | Independiente | 33 | 40-39 | 47 |
Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia odds
The bookmakers make Boca Juniors clear favourites. A home win pays just 1.35, a draw 4.40 and a Defensa y Justicia win 7.20. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.67.
| Bet | Odds | implied by odds | our view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors to win | 1.35 | 67% | 61% |
| Draw | 4.40 | 21% | 23% |
| Defensa y Justicia to win | 7.20 | 13% | 16% |
| Double chance 1X | 1.02 | 87% | 84% |
| Double chance X2 | 2.75 | 33% | 39% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 76% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 54% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 46% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.60 | 35% | 28% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1.40 | 65% | 72% |
“Implied by odds”: the probability contained in the odds (without the bookmaker margin). “Our view”: the odds and our statistical model combined.
Betting tip & prediction: Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia
In short: Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.40. We expect a 1-0. We put the chance at around 72%, while the odds imply only 65%. That is where the value in this bet lies.
For
- The odds match our numbers.
Against
- At home, Boca Juniors saw three or more goals in 3 of 5 games.
- Away from home, Defensa y Justicia saw three or more goals in 3 of 5 games.
Tip: Under 3.5 goals · Odds 1.40 · Prediction 1-0 · Risk low
FAQ: Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia
When do Boca Juniors play Defensa y Justicia?
Kick-off is on Saturday, 07/11/2026, at 21:30 (Argentine Primera División).
Who are the favourites in Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?
Boca Juniors are clear favourites: a home win pays 1.35, a Defensa y Justicia win 7.20.
What is the tip for Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.40. We expect a 1-0. Risk: low.
How did recent meetings between Boca Juniors and Defensa y Justicia go?
The only meeting in the last two seasons ended 0-4 to Boca Juniors (Defensa y Justicia vs Boca Juniors, 23/04/2026).
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