Bundesliga · Saturday, 07/11/2026 · 15:30
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München Prediction, Tips & Odds
Team pages: 1. FSV Mainz 05 · FC Bayern München
Full time 1-2 · Tip “Away win” won
Odds may change before kick-off · 18+ · not betting advice
On Saturday (7 November, 15:30), Mainz host Bayern München.
The situation: Mainz are in a relegation battle – Bayern München sit top of the table
Bayern München are in position 1 with 18 points, ahead of the hosts (10 points, position 10). Goal difference: 17-17 for Mainz, 27-8 for Bayern München. Mainz are just 3 points above the relegation play-off place. Bayern München occupy first place, but with no cushion at all.
Form guide Mainz: Still winless at home
Recent home defeats came against Werder Bremen (2-3), Bayer Leverkusen (3-4) and Eintracht Frankfurt (1-3). Mainz picked up no wins from their last 4 home games, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded.
Form guide Bayern München: Hard to beat away
On the road, Bayern München recently played 3-1 at Freiburg, 2-2 at Augsburg and 2-1 at Elversberg. Record in the last 4 away games: 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats, 7-4 goals. Bayern München scored in 3 of those 4 games.
Mainz at home, last 4 (oldest → newest)
Bayern München away, last 4 (oldest → newest)
Head-to-head: Plenty of draws
Record in the last 2 meetings: no wins for Mainz, 1 for Bayern München, 1 draw. There were 5.5 goals per game on average. Their last meeting ended 3-4 (Mainz vs Bayern Munchen, 25/04/2026).
- 25/04/2026 Mainz – Bayern Munchen 3-4
- 14/12/2025 Bayern Munchen – Mainz 2-2
Injuries and suspensions
Mainz are without: Stefan Posch (suspended), Silas (lacking match fitness), Otto Ruoppi (knee injury), Dominik Kohr (ankle injury), Phillipp Mwene (suspended).
Bayern München are without: Jamal Musiala (lacking match fitness), Luis Díaz (muscle injury), Ismael Saibari (ankle injury), Serge Gnabry (thigh injury), Bara Sapoko Ndiaye (arm or hand injury).
Late absences on matchday may not be included yet.
Who will score?
Top scorers, odds and striker form – Bundesliga: Bundesliga goalscorer tips.
Bundesliga table
| Pos | Team | P | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 8 | 27-8 | 18 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 14-6 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 18-10 | 16 |
| 8 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 10-20 | 12 |
| 9 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 13-18 | 11 |
| 10 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 17-17 | 10 |
| 11 | FC Augsburg | 8 | 18-15 | 9 |
| 12 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 14-15 | 9 |
Mainz vs Bayern München odds
Despite playing away, Bayern München are clear favourites with the bookmakers. An away win pays just 1.35, a draw 4.50, a home win 8.00. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.22.
| Bet | Odds | implied by odds | our view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz to win | 8.00 | 11% | 20% |
| Draw | 4.50 | 20% | 21% |
| Bayern München to win | 1.35 | 68% | 59% |
| Double chance 1X | 3.70 | 32% | 41% |
| Double chance X2 | 1.04 | 89% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.04 | 89% | 88% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.22 | 77% | 73% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | 23% | 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.55 | 60% | 54% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 2.30 | 40% | 46% |
“Implied by odds”: the probability contained in the odds (without the bookmaker margin). “Our view”: the odds and our statistical model combined.
Betting tip & prediction: Mainz vs Bayern München
In short: We are backing Away win at odds of 1.35. Our score prediction: 1-2. We put the chance at around 59%. The odds reflect that quite accurately, so this tip is no bargain.
For
- Mainz lost 3 of their last 4 home games.
- 9 places apart in the table, in favour of the visitors.
- Head-to-head: 1-0 in wins for Bayern München.
Against
- Away wins are the least predictable bet in football.
- Bayern München are missing 5 players.
Tip: Away win · Odds 1.35 · Prediction 1-2 · Risk medium
FAQ: Mainz vs Bayern München
When do Mainz play Bayern München?
Kick-off is on Saturday, 07/11/2026, at 15:30 (Bundesliga).
Who are the favourites in Mainz vs Bayern München?
Bayern München are clear favourites: an away win pays 1.35, a home win 8.00.
What is the tip for Mainz vs Bayern München?
Our tip is Away win at odds of 1.35. We expect a 1-2. Risk: medium.
How did recent meetings between Mainz and Bayern München go?
Record in the last 2 meetings: no wins for Mainz, 1 for Bayern München, 1 draw. There were 5.5 goals per game on average. Their last meeting ended 3-4 (Mainz vs Bayern Munchen, 25/04/2026).
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