Liga MX · Sunday, 08/11/2026 · 02:00
Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction, Tips & Odds
Team pages: Toluca · Monterrey
Full time 4-0 · Tip “Over 2.5 goals” won
Odds may change before kick-off · 18+ · not betting advice
On Sunday (8 November, 02:00), Toluca host Monterrey.
The situation: Toluca have gone 7 games without a win – Monterrey are on course for the play-offs
After 15 games, Toluca are in position 6 with 24 points. Monterrey have collected 21 points and sit in position 10. Goal difference: 31-21 for Toluca, 26-21 for Monterrey. Toluca have already secured their season target. Monterrey currently occupy a play-off place, but only one point clear.
Form guide Toluca: Inconsistent at home
At home they recently lost to Santos Laguna (2-3). They drew with Tijuana (2-2) and Atlético de San Luis (1-1). Toluca picked up 2 wins from their last 5 home games, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded.
Form guide Monterrey: Inconsistent on the road
On the road, Monterrey recently played 4-1 at Puebla, 1-1 at América and 2-4 at Atlante. Record in the last 5 away games: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 9-8 goals. Monterrey scored in 4 of those 5 games.
Toluca at home, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Monterrey away, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Head-to-head: Toluca vs Monterrey
The two sides have not met in the league in the last two seasons, so form and the table matter most here.
Injuries and suspensions
Toluca are without: Marcel Ruiz (cruciate ligament injury).
Monterrey have no known absentees.
Late absences on matchday may not be included yet.
Who will score?
Top scorers, odds and striker form – Liga MX: Liga MX goalscorer tips.
Liga MX table
| Pos | Team | P | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atlas | 16 | 27-30 | 27 |
| 5 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 23-20 | 25 |
| 6 | Toluca | 15 | 31-21 | 24 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 16 | 29-20 | 22 |
| 8 | Tijuana | 16 | 25-22 | 22 |
| 9 | León | 15 | 22-20 | 22 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 14 | 26-21 | 21 |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 15 | 22-24 | 20 |
| 12 | Querétaro | 14 | 18-21 | 20 |
Toluca vs Monterrey odds
The bookmakers make Toluca clear favourites. A home win pays just 1.57, a draw 4.10 and a Monterrey win 4.60. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.37.
| Bet | Odds | implied by odds | our view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca to win | 1.57 | 58% | 54% |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22% | 22% |
| Monterrey to win | 4.60 | 20% | 24% |
| Double chance 1X | 1.10 | 80% | 76% |
| Double chance X2 | 2.25 | 42% | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 84% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.37 | 67% | 69% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 33% | 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.97 | 46% | 48% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1.70 | 54% | 52% |
“Implied by odds”: the probability contained in the odds (without the bookmaker margin). “Our view”: the odds and our statistical model combined.
Betting tip & prediction: Toluca vs Monterrey
In short: We are backing Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.37. Our score prediction: 2-1. We put the chance at around 69%. The odds reflect that quite accurately, so this tip is no bargain.
For
- 4 of Toluca’s last 5 home games produced three or more goals.
- For Monterrey away it was 2 of 5.
Against
- Toluca are without 1 player.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals · Odds 1.37 · Prediction 2-1 · Risk medium
FAQ: Toluca vs Monterrey
When do Toluca play Monterrey?
Kick-off is on Sunday, 08/11/2026, at 02:00 (Liga MX).
Who are the favourites in Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca are clear favourites: a home win pays 1.57, a Monterrey win 4.60.
What is the tip for Toluca vs Monterrey?
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.37. We expect a 2-1. Risk: medium.
How did recent meetings between Toluca and Monterrey go?
The two sides have not met in the league in the last two seasons, so form and the table matter most here.
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