Eredivisie · Sunday, 08/11/2026 · 16:45
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Prediction, Tips & Odds
Team pages: AZ Alkmaar · Groningen
Odds may change before kick-off · 18+ · not betting advice
On Sunday (8 November, 16:45), AZ Alkmaar face Groningen in front of their own fans.
The situation: AZ Alkmaar have gone 4 games without a win – Groningen are chasing Europe
After 11 games, AZ Alkmaar are in position 5 with 20 points. Groningen have collected 15 points and sit in position 9. Goal difference: 20-13 for AZ Alkmaar, 26-24 for Groningen. AZ Alkmaar are just 3 points off a CL qualifying place. Groningen are just 2 points off a Conference League place.
Form guide AZ Alkmaar: Strong at home
At home they recently beat Telstar (1-0). There was also a defeat against Twente (0-2). Against Willem II (1-1) they could only draw. AZ Alkmaar picked up 3 wins from their last 5 home games, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
Form guide Groningen: Inconsistent on the road
On the road, Groningen recently played 2-2 at Nijmegen, 5-1 at Excelsior and 1-1 at Go Ahead Eagles. Record in the last 5 away games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat, 13-10 goals. Groningen scored in every one of those games.
AZ Alkmaar at home, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Groningen away, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Head-to-head: Goals expected
The only meeting in the last two seasons ended 4-1 to AZ Alkmaar (AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen, 10/08/2025).
- 10/08/2025 AZ Alkmaar – Groningen 4-1
Injuries and suspensions
AZ Alkmaar are without: Kees Smit (injury), Wouter Goes (bruising), Stije Resink (cruciate ligament injury), Lewis Schouten (injury), Jizz Hornkamp (injury).
Groningen are without: David van der Werff (injury), Etienne Vaessen (suspended), Malcolm Jeng (Achilles tendon injury), Ryan Metu (injury), Elvis van der Laan (injury).
Late absences on matchday may not be included yet.
Who will score?
Top scorers, odds and striker form – Eredivisie: Eredivisie goalscorer tips.
Eredivisie table
| Pos | Team | P | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 35-13 | 23 |
| 4 | Twente | 11 | 28-10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 20-13 | 20 |
| 6 | Sittard | 12 | 20-20 | 20 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | 19-13 | 18 |
| 8 | G.A. Eagles | 12 | 24-27 | 17 |
| 9 | Groningen | 11 | 26-24 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 11 | 23-22 | 15 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 21-29 | 12 |
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen odds
The bookmakers make AZ Alkmaar clear favourites. A home win pays just 1.47, a draw 4.80 and a Groningen win 5.50. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.40.
| Bet | Odds | implied by odds | our view |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar to win | 1.47 | 64% | 54% |
| Draw | 4.80 | 19% | 20% |
| Groningen to win | 5.50 | 17% | 25% |
| Double chance 1X | 1.07 | 83% | 75% |
| Double chance X2 | 2.65 | 36% | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 85% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 69% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.85 | 33% | 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.97 | 47% | 48% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1.75 | 53% | 52% |
“Implied by odds”: the probability contained in the odds (without the bookmaker margin). “Our view”: the odds and our statistical model combined.
Betting tip & prediction: AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen
In short: We are backing Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.40. Our score prediction: 2-1. We put the chance at around 69%. The odds reflect that quite accurately, so this tip is no bargain.
For
- 1 of AZ Alkmaar’s last 5 home games produced three or more goals.
- For Groningen away it was 4 of 5.
Against
- AZ Alkmaar kept 2 clean sheets at home.
- AZ Alkmaar are without 5 players.
- Groningen are missing 5 players.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals · Odds 1.40 · Prediction 2-1 · Risk medium
FAQ: AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen
When do AZ Alkmaar play Groningen?
Kick-off is on Sunday, 08/11/2026, at 16:45 (Eredivisie).
Who are the favourites in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites: a home win pays 1.47, a Groningen win 5.50.
What is the tip for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.40. We expect a 2-1. Risk: medium.
How did recent meetings between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen go?
The only meeting in the last two seasons ended 4-1 to AZ Alkmaar (AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen, 10/08/2025).
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